WPŁYW ZMIAN KLIMATYCZNYCH NA ODPŁYWY CAŁKOWITY I PODZIEMNY NA PRZYKŁADZIE ZLEWNI RZECZNYCH SUDETÓW I ICH PRZEDPOLA

Abstract

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE TOTAL AND GROUNDWATER RUNOFF – A CASE STUDY OF RIVER BASINS IN THE SUDETY MTS AND THEIR FORELANDAbstract. The article presents the variability of total and groundwater runoff influenced by global and local climate changes exemplified by selected Sudetic and Fore-Sudetic river basins. The IMGW data from the years 1966–2005 allowed estimating the average annual values of the total and groundwater runoff and seven-day annual minimum flows, which provide useful information about the drought. The calculated parameters were compared with the precipitation and air temperature values, dryness index, the NAO and the AMO. In the Sudety Mts and their foreland, no changes in the total runoff have been observed, however there is a significant reduction in the groundwater runoff rate, which indicates a change in the structure of groundwater recharge. The greatest relationship of the changes in total runoff, groundwater runoff and seven-year annual minimum flow was obtained for the Oscillation NAO, which confirms that the runoff from the Sudety Mts and their foreland is dependent on global factors. It is very important to assess the changes of runoff from the study area according to climate scenarios for the years 2011–2030, which show a significant increase in air temperature and slight differences in precipitation. The studies indicate that significant reduction of groundwater runoff in favour of surface runoff increase can be expected in the Sudety Mts and their foreland.