ANALIZA ELEMENTÓW RYZYKA GEOLOGICZNEGO REJONU SULISZEWO-RADĘCIN W KONTEKŚCIE SKŁADOWANIA CO2

Abstract

ANALYSIS OF GEOLOGICAL RISK ELEMENTS IN THE SULISZEWO-RADĘCIN AREA FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF CARBON DIOXIDE STORAGEAbstract. The paper presents the analysis of risk elements in the Lower Jurassic water-saturated formation in the Radęcin-Suliszewo area. The reservoir rocks in this area are represented by Sinemurian and Pliensbachian sandstones sealed by Toarcian mudstones and claystones. The authors constructed a structural model arid then base parametric models for the Radęcin-Suliszewo area. Based on the base models, an output value of the CO2 amount possible to be injected was estimated. In the next stage, following the Uncertainty Analysis procedure in Petrel, analysis of four elements affecting volumetric values was carried out (i.e. gas saturation, location of gas/water contact, porosity, and the ratio of reservoir rocks versus sealing rocks). With application of the Monte Carlo method, sampling for the above uncertainty elements was performed. For each realization, gas volume in reservoir conditions was computed. The results were presented in the form of histograms and a tornado chart. In this way, the authors determined to what degree the individual uncertainty elements affect the CO2 amount possible to be injected. The strongest effects on the amount are associated with the properly assumed model of gas saturation (93-116% in relation to the base model) and then the determined contact between reservoir media (93.5-106.5% in relation to the base model). Porosity affects from 97-103.5% of the analysis results and the difference in the threshold value of the reservoir rocks/sealing rocks ratio is insignificant and can be neglected.